NEMA Electroindustry Business Conditions Index (EBCI) Drops below 50 by Uncertain Political and Monetary Outlook

The six month run of NEMA’s Electroindustry Business Conditions Index (EBCI) scoring 50 or higher has ended with September’s result of 47.1. Dropping below 50 suggests that current conditions are no longer conducive for expansion in the electrical manufacturing sector. Only 24% of respondents reported better conditions in September, versus 33% last month. The share of respondents reporting worse conditions nearly doubled from 17% in August to 29% this month, while the proportion of panel members who noted unchanged conditions showed little movement—47% this time compared to 50% last month.

The survey’s measure of the intensity of change in electroindustry business conditions edged into negative territory, as the mean rating slid from +0.2 in August to -0.2 in September. Panelists are asked to report intensity of change on a scale ranging from –5 (deteriorated significantly) through 0 (unchanged) to +5 (improved significantly). 

The future conditions index, although still in the range indicative of expansion, dropped considerably from 66.7 in August to 52.9 this month. Mirroring the current conditions responses, 47% now expect conditions to remain unchanged in six months, compared to 33% in August. The share of respondents expecting better conditions has eroded to 29% in this month’s survey versus 50% last month, and 24% of September’s respondents foresee worse conditions in six months, up from 17 percent in August. 

Click here for the complete September 2016 report.

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