TrendForce《2025 Near-Eye Display Market Trend and Technology Analysis》observes that the near-eye display device market is expected to remain subdued in the short term, with global shipments protected at 6.2 million units in 2025. Meta’s Quest 3s has underperformed expectations, with shipments forecast to decline to 5.6 million units in 2025. In contrast, AR devices are showing stronger short-term momentum. Driven by new AI+AR products and falling OLEDoS costs, shipments are expected to reach 600,000 units in 2025. Over the medium to long term, ongoing VR/MR product development by major players such as Meta and Apple will help strengthen the ecosystem. On the other hand, strong demand in notification-type AR devices and the rise of high-end full-color AR products are set to fuel long-term growth, with global NED devices shipment forecast to surge to 46.5 million units by 2030.

Outlook on AR Display Technology
Choices regarding AR display technology reflect brand strategies and market trends. In the near term, OLEDoS will remain dominant in China due to cost advantages, though TrendForce notes it faces rising competition from other display technologies. LCoS is expected to gain market traction with adoption by Meta, while growth in notification-type AR glasses using single-color LEDoS is also driving LEDoS penetration.

Over the long term, AR devices will increasingly demand higher computing power, longer battery life, and enhanced display performance—particularly with the integration of AI. Global brands are leaning toward high-spec full-color LEDoS technology. As costs decline and performance improves, TrendForce forecasts shipments of AR devices equipped with full-color LEDoS to reach 20.9 million units by 2030, accounting for 65% penetration.

Waveguide Process and SiC Alliance Analysis
In AR optical engines, waveguide technology remains a critical differentiator. While diffractive waveguides are the current mainstream, efficiency improvements are still needed. Two primary process technologies dominate waveguide manufacturing:

• Nanoimprint lithography (NIL): Suited for early-stage small-batch development due to lower mother mold costs and adaptability to complex nanostructure design.
• Photolithography (PL): Better for mass production, with higher throughput, longer mask lifetimes, and direct processing capability for high-refractive-index SiC materials.
   

TrendForce observes a growing number of Chinese SiC suppliers forming alliances with waveguide makers. SiC’s high refractive index makes it a highly promising material. Currently, Chinese SiC substrates are mainly 4- and 6-inch, but cost efficiency is driving a shift to larger sizes. By 2030, shipments of 8-inch SiC wafers are expected to exceed 20%, with 12-inch development on the horizon. This will further accelerate the adoption of PL technology.

AR Brand Strategies and Specification Trends
As AR optical engine modules shrink, specifications are converging and limiting differentiation. CMOS substrate sizes and designs are trending toward standardization to manage costs. Currently, most LEDoS and LCoS panels range from 0.13–0.18 inches, with pixel densities exceeding 5,500 PPI. LEDoS resolutions typically range 640x480 to 720x720, while LCoS panels generally sit at 720x720. This has pushed brands to pursue distinct strategic directions.

Xreal is focused on display technology and algorithms to expand FOV and enhance computing performance, and RayNeo is strengthening its OLEDoS + Birdbath solution for media consumption while advancing full-color LEDoS + waveguide AR glasses. Meanwhile, INMO is prioritizing all-in-one AI-driven AR terminals and Meta plans to build a full product lineup and invest heavily in AI capabilities to counter Apple’s future market entry.

This trend highlights a shift in the AR market from hardware-only competition to a more integrated hardware-software ecosystem

Author : Thea, Emerson, Estelle / TrendForce

TrendForce 2025 Near-Eye Display Market Trend and Technology Analysis
Publication Date : 8/29, 2025
Language : Traditional Chinese / English
Format : PDF
Page Number: 168

Chapter I. Near-Eye Display Devices Market Analysis

• 2025-2030 NED Device Shipment Analysis
• 2025-2030 VR/MR Shipment Analysis
• 2025-2030 Global VR/MR Devices Market Share by Technology
• 2025-2030 VR/MR Devices Market Size Analysis： LCD/OLEDoS
• 2025-2030 AR Shipment Analysis
• AR Devices Market Share by Region
• 2025-2030 Global AR Devices Market Share by Technology
• 2025-2030 AR Devices Market Size Analysis： LCD/OLEDoS

Chapter II. Near-Eye Display Technology Development Trend Analysis
2.1 VR/MR Display Technology and Market Trend Analysis 

• Native Issue of VST ： Geometric Distortion
• Foveation Reduces Data Transmission and Power Consumption
• Brightness Perception Also Focuses on Fovea – Peripheral Dimming
• Foveated VR Display Achieved through Polarization + Pancake
• Solutions in Reducing Power Consumption for LCD
• Losses Generated from Compensation on Pancake by Mini LED Backlight
• Straight Light Lowers Contrast Gain of Mini LED Backlight
• RGB Mini LED Backlight Enter Possible Realm of LCD VR
• Upgrading from Blue Light Mini LED to RGB Mini LED?
• Directional Backlight an Ideal Target of LCD VR
• 12-inch OLEDoS Player Capacity Analysis
• Lateral Comparison of Full-Color OLEDoS Technology
• OLEDoS PPI Cap Elevated by Triple-Nozzle Evaporation System
• Development of VR/MR

2.2 AR Display Technology and Market Trend Analysis 

• Light Source Specification and Pricing Sweet Spot Analysis
• Multi-Zone Micro/Mini LED Backlight Increases Contrast and Reduces Power Consumption for LCoS
• LCoS Further Shrinking： Planar Optical Technology Ongoing Exploration
• Summarized Development Trends of LCoS Technology
• Challenges in Advancing from X-Cube to Single-Chip Full-Color for LEDoS
• Drivers Behind Transition from X-Cube to Single-Chip Full-Color Solution for LEDoS
• Lateral Comparison of Full-Color LEDoS Technology
• Lateral Comparison of Full-Color LEDoS Technology-Vertical Stacking
• Vertical Stacking LEDoS Key Technology Analysis- Seoul Viosys / JBD
• Lateral Comparison of Full-Color LEDoS Technology-InGaN
• CMOS Driving Backplanes of Microdisplays Marching to 12-inch
• Technical Challenges on CMOS for LEDoS from Backplane Designs to System Integration
• Chip Bonding Process Analysis
• Wafer Bonding Process Analysis
• Sony Semiconductor Also Proposed D2W2W for LEDoS
• LEDoS Player Capacity Analysis
• LCoS vs LEDoS
• Power consumption comparison between LEDoS and LCoS
• Analysis on Specifications of LEDoS and LCoS Displays
• Analysis on Specifications of LEDoS and LCoS Full-Color Light Engines

2.3 AR Optical Technology and Market Trend Analysis 

• Geometric Waveguide
• Diffractive Waveguide
• Compromises of Diffraction Waveguides in the Three Major Specifications
• The Efficiency Challenges of Diffractive Waveguides
• Nano Imprint Lithography (NIL) vs. Photolithography (PL)
• Thermal NIL vs. UV NIL
• Thermal NIL Challenges
• Rain Technology Adopted with Geometric Optical Waveguide of
• the Polarization System
• Ant Reality Optics – Mixed Waveguide
• Pros and Cons of Combiner Technology
• Meta waveguide patent strategy
• AUO and BOE Both Involved in SRG Waveguide

2.4 SiC Optical Wavegudie Technology and Market Trend Analysis 

• Meta Orion AR：SiC Optical Wavegudie + Dual-sided Grating
• Feasibility and limitation of SiC waveguide applications
• AR Glasses Output by SiC Wafer Size
• SiC Wafer Market Analysis
• SiC Industry Chain Manufacturers

2.5 AR System Technology and Market Trend Analysis 

• Emerging Technology： Eye Tracking in Near-Eye Displays
• AR/VR - Analysis on Advantages of Eye Tracking
• Eye Tracking- PCCR vs. Al Image Analysis
• Eye Tracking – Analysis on Brand Strategies and Value Chain
• SoC

Chapter III. Global AR Product Development Trend Analysis
3.1 AR Product Development Trend Analysis in China 

• Development of AR
• China AR Brand-Xreal
• China AR Brand-RayNeo
• China AR Brand-INMO
• China AR Brand- Rokid / MEIZU
• China AR Glasses Comparison： Weight/Display Technology
• China AR Glasses Comparison： Price/Display Technology

3.2 AR Product Development Trend Analysis - Non China

• AI/AR Glasses Roadmap
• Non China AI/AR Glasses Comparison
• Development of AR glasses from 2014 to 2024
• Non China AR glasses Full-color Display Technology

Chapter IV. Player Dynamic Updates

• VR/MR Supply Chain
• Seeya
• Sidtek
• BOE Achieved Milestone of Double 5K for 0.9-inch OLEDoS
• AR Supply Chain
• EV Group
• Porotech
• Polar Light Technologies AB (PLT)
• Q Pixel
• Micledi Microdisplays
• VueReal
• JBD
• Hongshi
• Raysolve
• Giga-Image
• GIS /JorJin
• Himax
• Meta
• Google
• Snap