According to TrendForce’s latest “Gold+ Member Report: Global LED Market Demand and Supply Database and LED Industry Quarterly Update,” memory price hikes are expected to further dampen shipments of consumer electronics in 2026, suppressing global consumer demand. Nonetheless, momentum from Micro/Mini LEDs, UV/IR LEDs, automotive lighting and displays, and agricultural lighting applications is set to drive growth in the LED industry in 2026. Overall, the LED market is slated to reach USD 12.176 billion in 2026.

1. Micro LED Self-Emitting Displays
Between 2025 and 2026, leading brands have accelerated the deployment of AI glasses. New products such as Meta Ray-Ban Display, Rokid, and RayNeo have been introduced to the market, while established e-commerce and hardware brands such as Alibaba and Lenovo are joining the competition. Micro LEDs, leveraging brightness and miniaturization advantages, have made strides in applications such as information displays. Moreover, Micro LED technology has outperformed competing alternatives for the first time, poised to claim the largest share in this segment. TrendForce forecasts that 2029-2030 will see a market boom, with Apple and Meta releasing premium AR devices featuring Micro LED displays, emerging as a lever for volume growth. TrendForce projects that the Micro LED chip market for head-mounted displays is set to grow with a CAGR of 133% between 2025 and 2030.

2. Mini LED Backlights and Video Walls
China’s “trade-in” subsidy requirements have restricted government support to products with a Level 1 China Energy Label (CEL), paving the way for Mini LED backlight TV models. Regarding technology trends, brands such as Samsung, Sony, TCL, and Hisense are gearing up to launch RGB Mini LED backlight TVs, while diversifying product sizes across their production lines. TrendForce estimates that the global Mini LED backlight TV market will increase by nearly 40% in 2026.

Mini LED (COB) display technology has expanded from P1.25 to P1.5 and P1.8 LED video wall applications. LCD panel manufacturers including BOE, TCL CSOT, and HKC have ramped up Mini LED (COB) video wall capacity. Notably, Mini LED video wall brands include Samsung, LG, Leyard, Unilumin, Absen, BOE, Cedar, and Ledman, while Mini LED COB module suppliers include VMTC, Seoul Viosys, HCP, TCL CSOT, HKC, Hongli, and GKGD. Together, these market players are projected to drive the Mini LED video wall market to grow by nearly 20% in 2026.

3. UV LED
In 1Q26, UV LED prices are set to be anchored by the rising costs of precious metals, raw materials, and labor. Moreover, customized products are likely to witness a quarterly increase of 5%. Amid the steady growth in global curing and sterilization / purification applications, TrendForce estimates that the UV LED market will potentially rise to USD 215 million in 2026, with a CAGR of 10% or higher.

4. Automotive Lighting and Displays
Toward 2026, global automotive shipments are forecast to decelerate growth. China will begin imposing a 5% purchase tax on new energy vehicles from 2026-2027, while the US market saw a wave of pre-orders due to the expiration of federal subsidies in 2H25. These factors are considered to hinder growth in the automotive market in 2026. Consequently, the automotive LED market will increasingly rely on the adoption and penetration of advanced technologies to sustain market growth. Key applications include adaptive driving beam (ADB) headlights, Mini LED taillights, decorative lighting solutions (ambient lights, grille lamps, and ADS marker lamps), ground projectors, and automotive backlight displays. With these drivers in place, the automotive LED market is expected to maintain single-digit growth in 2026.

5. Agricultural Lighting
The agricultural lighting market is mainly driven by two forces: First, energy efficiency requirements have pushed the demand for high-pressure sodium (HPS) lamp replacements to its peak. Second, regional policies are spurring new infrastructure development, as government support is expected to drive small and medium-sized vertical farms to enter the construction phase in China and Southeast Asia. On the technological front, 2026 will mark a pivotal year for accelerated penetration of advanced spectrum technologies (multi-color LEDs). This transition will drive the market toward high-quality products, further boosting agricultural LED shipment volumes. To address persistent cost pressures and increasing customer demands of high efficacy and precise spectrum control, suppliers such as ams OSRAM are slated to launch next-generation products that deliver both high performance and cost-effectiveness, facilitating the robustness and stability of market pricing structure. Considering a shipment rebound and stabilized pricing, TrendForce projects that the global agricultural LED lighting market will maintain single-digit growth in 2026.

Author: TrendForce Research Team

 Gold+ Member Report

(Global LED Industry Database vs. LED Player Movement Quarterly Update)

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